Most leadership crises don't arrive out of nowhere. They walk towards you, slowly, in plain sight.
The policy analyst Michele Wucker calls these "grey rhinos": threats that are likely, high-impact and visible long before they hit, yet routinely ignored. Black swans get the headlines. Grey rhinos do most of the damage.
In the C-suite, they tend to look like this.
A succession nobody has planned. The CEO has been in post for years. Everyone knows the question is coming. No one wants to be the first to ask it.
A leadership team built for the last strategy. The plan has changed: new markets, new technology, a turnaround. The team hasn't.
One executive everyone depends on. The organisation works because one person holds it together. That is a risk, not a strength.
A hire made in a hurry. A role left open too long, then filled with the first credible name rather than the right one.
None of these is a secret. Each shows up in board papers, in corridor conversations, in the slow drift of performance. What they share is that acting feels expensive today, while the cost of waiting stays invisible until it isn't.
So what does acting early look like?
Name it. Put the risk on the board agenda by name. "CEO succession, 2027", not "talent".
Map the market before you need it. Know who the finest candidates are for your most critical roles, inside your industry and outside it, before a departure forces the question. A confidential map costs little. A rushed appointment costs a great deal.
Test your bench honestly. Internal successors deserve a fair, external benchmark. Sometimes they are ready. Often they are close, and need a year of the right exposure. You only find out by looking.
Decide what "right" means now. Write down the outcomes the next leader must deliver. A clear mandate makes for a faster, better search when the time comes.
Grey rhinos don't stay still. Eventually they charge. The boards that handle leadership transitions well are rarely the lucky ones. They are the ones that looked up early.
If one of these sounds familiar, I'm happy to talk it through, in confidence.